BENGALURU: India will have 35 lakh Covid-19 cases, and Karnataka 2.1 lakh, by September 1, says a worst-case scenario projection that an IISc team says is based on the current national trend. The Indian Institute of Science projection says active cases in the country, and in the state, are likely to be 10 lakh and 71,300, respectively, by then. In a better-than-the-current-trend scenario, the country may hit a peak of 20 lakh total cases, 4.75 lakh active, and 88,000 deaths by September 1. And, in the same scenario, Karnataka will have 1.2 lakh total cases, 28,700 active cases and 5,460 deaths. The same model also says the country will have 37.4 lakh total cases, 14 lakh active cases and 1.9 lakh deaths by the end of March 2021.
For perspective, as of 7 pm Wednesday, India had 9.4 lakh Covid cases, 3.4 lakh active cases and 24,300 deaths. Worst-case scenario projections show Maharashtra may have 6.3 lakh cases, Delhi 2.4 lakh, Tamil Nadu 1.6 lakh and Gujarat 1.8 lakh cases by September, with active cases roughly 35% of the total. The projections by IISc professors Sashikumar G, Deepak S and their team said India would have 1.4 lakh deaths — of them 25,000 from Maharashtra, 9,700 from Delhi, 8,500 from Karnataka, 6,300 from Tamil Nadu and 7,300 from Gujarat — by September. They project that India is likely to have 1.2 crore cases and 5 lakh deaths by November 1 and 2.9 crore cases and 10 lakh deaths by January 1. Karnataka is estimated to have 7.2 lakh cases and 30,400 deaths by November 1, and 10.8 lakh cases and 78,900 deaths by January 1.
As per the worse-case scenario, no peak is predicted for India until the end of March 2021, at which time there will be 6.2 crore cases, 82 lakh active cases and 28 lakh deaths.
The state-wise projections are computed with the parameters of the national trend to compare the performance of the respective state with the national trend. For example, Kerala, Karnataka, UP (and others) have done better than the national trend, whereas Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, MP (and others) have done worse than the national trend.


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